College Regression

How many red zone touchdowns a team has scored against how many its trips imply at the college average of 64.5%. The gap is the part most likely to move.

Read this one carefully in September. A team with four red zone trips and four touchdowns leads this table, and it means almost nothing: four trips is a quarter of one game’s worth of chances. The minimum-trips control exists for that reason, and the gap column is only worth reading once a team has a season’s worth behind it.

Minimum trips138 teams

Team	Conf	Trips	TDs	Expected	Gap	Rate
Georgia	SEC	33	28	21.3	+6.7	85%
Cincinnati	Big 12	29	25	18.7	+6.3	86%
Miami	ACC	37	30	23.9	+6.1	81%
Alabama Crimson	SEC	33	27	21.3	+5.7	82%
Ole Miss	SEC	25	21	16.1	+4.9	84%
Toledo	MAC	33	26	21.3	+4.7	79%
Oregon State	Pac-12	33	26	21.3	+4.7	79%
Nebraska	Big Ten	27	22	17.4	+4.6	81%
James Madison	Sun Belt	40	30	25.8	+4.2	75%
Louisiana Ragin'	Sun Belt	28	22	18.1	+3.9	79%
Colorado State	Pac-12	28	22	18.1	+3.9	79%
Florida	SEC	33	25	21.3	+3.7	76%
Northwestern	Big Ten	30	23	19.4	+3.6	77%
LSU	SEC	44	32	28.4	+3.6	73%
Ohio	MAC	24	19	15.5	+3.5	79%
UConn	FBS Indep.	24	19	15.5	+3.5	79%
North Texas Mean	American	35	26	22.6	+3.4	74%
App State	Sun Belt	29	22	18.7	+3.3	76%
Army Black	American	23	18	14.8	+3.2	78%
SMU	ACC	34	25	21.9	+3.1	74%
Utah	Big 12	34	25	21.9	+3.1	74%
Florida State	ACC	28	21	18.1	+2.9	75%
UCF	Big 12	28	21	18.1	+2.9	75%
Tulsa Golden	American	28	21	18.1	+2.9	75%
Navy	American	22	17	14.2	+2.8	77%
BYU	Big 12	30	22	19.4	+2.6	73%
Kansas	Big 12	27	20	17.4	+2.6	74%
Wake Forest Demon	ACC	32	23	20.6	+2.4	72%
New Mexico	Mountain West	29	21	18.7	+2.3	72%
Arkansas State Red	Sun Belt	29	21	18.7	+2.3	72%
Rutgers Scarlet	Big Ten	29	21	18.7	+2.3	72%
Tennessee	SEC	26	19	16.8	+2.2	73%
Western Michigan	MAC	28	20	18.1	+1.9	71%
Houston	Big 12	42	29	27.1	+1.9	69%
Louisville	ACC	25	18	16.1	+1.9	72%
South Carolina	SEC	25	18	16.1	+1.9	72%
NC State	ACC	30	21	19.4	+1.6	70%
Indiana	Big Ten	30	21	19.4	+1.6	70%
Arizona	Big 12	27	19	17.4	+1.6	70%
West Virginia	Big 12	35	24	22.6	+1.4	69%
Boise State	Pac-12	26	18	16.8	+1.2	69%
Vanderbilt	SEC	23	16	14.8	+1.2	70%
Ball State	MAC	20	14	12.9	+1.1	70%
Iowa State	Big 12	17	12	11.0	+1.0	71%
Georgia State	Sun Belt	28	19	18.1	+0.9	68%
Southern Miss Golden	Sun Belt	25	17	16.1	+0.9	68%
San Diego State	Pac-12	25	17	16.1	+0.9	68%
USC	Big Ten	39	26	25.2	+0.8	67%
Akron	MAC	22	15	14.2	+0.8	68%
Notre Dame Fighting	FBS Indep.	33	22	21.3	+0.7	67%
Oregon	Big Ten	30	20	19.4	+0.6	67%
Florida Atlantic	American	27	18	17.4	+0.6	67%
North Dakota State	Mountain West	24	16	15.5	+0.5	67%
Kentucky	SEC	38	25	24.5	+0.5	66%
South Florida	American	21	14	13.5	+0.5	67%
Ohio State	Big Ten	32	21	20.6	+0.4	66%
Maryland	Big Ten	32	21	20.6	+0.4	66%
Coastal Carolina	Sun Belt	15	10	9.7	+0.3	67%
Middle Tennessee Blue	CUSA	15	10	9.7	+0.3	67%
Air Force	Mountain West	29	19	18.7	+0.3	66%
Auburn	SEC	23	15	14.8	+0.2	65%
California Golden	ACC	23	15	14.8	+0.2	65%
Arizona State Sun	Big 12	23	15	14.8	+0.2	65%
Troy	Sun Belt	20	13	12.9	+0.1	65%
Illinois Fighting	Big Ten	20	13	12.9	+0.1	65%
Louisiana Tech	Sun Belt	31	20	20.0	+0.0	65%
Virginia	ACC	31	20	20.0	+0.0	65%
South Alabama	Sun Belt	28	18	18.1	-0.1	64%
Texas	SEC	28	18	18.1	-0.1	64%
Minnesota Golden	Big Ten	25	16	16.1	-0.1	64%
Nevada Wolf	Mountain West	22	14	14.2	-0.2	64%
Texas A&M	SEC	36	23	23.2	-0.2	64%
New Mexico State	CUSA	19	12	12.3	-0.3	63%
UL Monroe	Sun Belt	19	12	12.3	-0.3	63%
Charlotte	American	16	10	10.3	-0.3	63%
Washington State	Pac-12	16	10	10.3	-0.3	63%
Liberty	CUSA	30	19	19.4	-0.4	63%
Central Michigan	MAC	13	8	8.4	-0.4	62%
North Carolina Tar	ACC	24	15	15.5	-0.5	63%
Iowa	Big Ten	21	13	13.5	-0.5	62%
Bowling Green	MAC	18	11	11.6	-0.6	61%
Western Kentucky	CUSA	18	11	11.6	-0.6	61%
Texas State	Pac-12	32	20	20.6	-0.6	63%
UCLA	Big Ten	32	20	20.6	-0.6	63%
Stanford	ACC	23	14	14.8	-0.8	61%
Massachusetts	MAC	23	14	14.8	-0.8	61%
Purdue	Big Ten	34	21	21.9	-0.9	62%
Washington	Big Ten	34	21	21.9	-0.9	62%
Michigan	Big Ten	17	10	11.0	-1.0	59%
Pittsburgh	ACC	28	17	18.1	-1.1	61%
Penn State Nittany	Big Ten	25	15	16.1	-1.1	60%
Delaware Blue	CUSA	25	15	16.1	-1.1	60%
Temple	American	19	11	12.3	-1.3	58%
Virginia Tech	ACC	33	20	21.3	-1.3	61%
Sam Houston	CUSA	16	9	10.3	-1.3	56%
UTSA	American	30	18	19.4	-1.4	60%
Fresno State	Pac-12	27	16	17.4	-1.4	59%
Kennesaw State	CUSA	24	14	15.5	-1.5	58%
Kent State Golden	MAC	24	14	15.5	-1.5	58%
Michigan State	Big Ten	24	14	15.5	-1.5	58%
Georgia Southern	Sun Belt	24	14	15.5	-1.5	58%
Mississippi State	SEC	24	14	15.5	-1.5	58%
Wisconsin	Big Ten	21	12	13.5	-1.5	57%
Miami (OH)	MAC	26	15	16.8	-1.8	58%
TCU Horned	Big 12	26	15	16.8	-1.8	58%
Kansas State	Big 12	37	22	23.9	-1.9	59%
Colorado	Big 12	20	11	12.9	-1.9	55%
Old Dominion	Sun Belt	17	9	11.0	-2.0	53%
Rice	American	14	7	9.0	-2.0	50%
Duke Blue	ACC	28	16	18.1	-2.1	57%
Arkansas	SEC	25	14	16.1	-2.1	56%
San José State	Mountain West	22	12	14.2	-2.2	55%
Wyoming	Mountain West	27	15	17.4	-2.4	56%
Eastern Michigan	MAC	24	13	15.5	-2.5	54%
UAB	American	18	9	11.6	-2.6	50%
Missouri State	CUSA	26	14	16.8	-2.8	54%
Georgia Tech Yellow	ACC	26	14	16.8	-2.8	54%
Oklahoma State	Big 12	40	23	25.8	-2.8	57%
UTEP	Mountain West	17	8	11.0	-3.0	47%
Utah State	Pac-12	17	8	11.0	-3.0	47%
Northern Illinois	Mountain West	16	7	10.3	-3.3	44%
Boston College	ACC	27	14	17.4	-3.4	52%
Texas Tech Red	Big 12	27	14	17.4	-3.4	52%
Memphis	American	38	21	24.5	-3.5	55%
Oklahoma	SEC	15	6	9.7	-3.7	40%
Tulane Green	American	15	6	9.7	-3.7	40%
Buffalo	MAC	29	15	18.7	-3.7	52%
East Carolina	American	26	13	16.8	-3.8	50%
Baylor	Big 12	28	14	18.1	-4.1	50%
Hawai'i Rainbow	Mountain West	30	15	19.4	-4.4	50%
Marshall Thundering	Sun Belt	27	13	17.4	-4.4	48%
UNLV	Mountain West	21	9	13.5	-4.5	43%
Syracuse	ACC	35	18	22.6	-4.6	51%
Jacksonville State	CUSA	26	12	16.8	-4.8	46%
Sacramento State	MAC	17	6	11.0	-5.0	35%
Missouri	SEC	28	13	18.1	-5.1	46%
Clemson	ACC	22	9	14.2	-5.2	41%
Florida International	CUSA	21	6	13.5	-7.5	29%

On defense the sign flips: allowing fewer touchdowns than the trips faced imply is good for the defense but is the same kind of luck, and just as likely to come back. The table reorders so the most fortunate team is at the top either way.