College Regression

How many red zone touchdowns a team has scored against how many its trips imply at the college average of 63.4%. The gap is the part most likely to move.

Read this one carefully in September. A team with four red zone trips and four touchdowns leads this table, and it means almost nothing: four trips is a quarter of one game’s worth of chances. The minimum-trips control exists for that reason, and the gap column is only worth reading once a team has a season’s worth behind it.

Minimum trips88 teams

Team	Conf	Trips	TDs	Expected	Gap	Rate
NC State	ACC	9	9	5.7	+3.3	100%
USC	Big Ten	17	14	10.8	+3.2	82%
Utah	Big 12	14	12	8.9	+3.1	86%
New Mexico	Mountain West	10	9	6.3	+2.7	90%
Kansas	Big 12	10	9	6.3	+2.7	90%
Indiana	Big Ten	7	7	4.4	+2.6	100%
Nebraska	Big Ten	6	6	3.8	+2.2	100%
Miami	ACC	10	8	6.3	+1.7	80%
UConn	FBS Indep.	4	4	2.5	+1.5	100%
Louisiana Ragin'	Sun Belt	4	4	2.5	+1.5	100%
Kent State Golden	MAC	4	4	2.5	+1.5	100%
Illinois Fighting	Big Ten	4	4	2.5	+1.5	100%
Louisville	ACC	9	7	5.7	+1.3	78%
Air Force	Mountain West	9	7	5.7	+1.3	78%
Georgia	SEC	9	7	5.7	+1.3	78%
Virginia	ACC	9	7	5.7	+1.3	78%
Ohio State	Big Ten	6	5	3.8	+1.2	83%
Nevada Wolf	Mountain West	6	5	3.8	+1.2	83%
South Carolina	SEC	6	5	3.8	+1.2	83%
Southern Miss Golden	Sun Belt	6	5	3.8	+1.2	83%
Minnesota Golden	Big Ten	6	5	3.8	+1.2	83%
LSU	SEC	6	5	3.8	+1.2	83%
Alabama Crimson	SEC	6	5	3.8	+1.2	83%
Florida State	ACC	6	5	3.8	+1.2	83%
James Madison	Sun Belt	11	8	7.0	+1.0	73%
Western Kentucky	CUSA	5	4	3.2	+0.8	80%
Notre Dame Fighting	FBS Indep.	5	4	3.2	+0.8	80%
Kennesaw State	CUSA	5	4	3.2	+0.8	80%
Arizona	Big 12	5	4	3.2	+0.8	80%
UCF	Big 12	5	4	3.2	+0.8	80%
Buffalo	MAC	4	3	2.5	+0.5	75%
Florida	SEC	4	3	2.5	+0.5	75%
California Golden	ACC	4	3	2.5	+0.5	75%
Cal Poly	Big Sky	4	3	2.5	+0.5	75%
Eastern Michigan	MAC	4	3	2.5	+0.5	75%
Troy	Sun Belt	4	3	2.5	+0.5	75%
Delaware Blue	CUSA	9	6	5.7	+0.3	67%
Army Black	American	9	6	5.7	+0.3	67%
Wyoming	Mountain West	6	4	3.8	+0.2	67%
Jacksonville State	CUSA	6	4	3.8	+0.2	67%
New Mexico State	CUSA	6	4	3.8	+0.2	67%
Old Dominion	Sun Belt	6	4	3.8	+0.2	67%
West Virginia	Big 12	8	5	5.1	-0.1	63%
Stanford	ACC	5	3	3.2	-0.2	60%
App State	Sun Belt	5	3	3.2	-0.2	60%
Iowa State	Big 12	5	3	3.2	-0.2	60%
Temple	American	5	3	3.2	-0.2	60%
Kentucky	SEC	5	3	3.2	-0.2	60%
Miami (OH)	MAC	5	3	3.2	-0.2	60%
UCLA	Big Ten	5	3	3.2	-0.2	60%
Michigan State	Big Ten	5	3	3.2	-0.2	60%
Purdue	Big Ten	13	8	8.2	-0.2	62%
North Dakota State	Mountain West	7	4	4.4	-0.4	57%
Kansas State	Big 12	7	4	4.4	-0.4	57%
Fresno State	Pac-12	7	4	4.4	-0.4	57%
Texas A&M	SEC	7	4	4.4	-0.4	57%
Rutgers Scarlet	Big Ten	7	4	4.4	-0.4	57%
San Diego State	Pac-12	7	4	4.4	-0.4	57%
Vanderbilt	SEC	7	4	4.4	-0.4	57%
Massachusetts	MAC	4	2	2.5	-0.5	50%
UAB	American	4	2	2.5	-0.5	50%
Missouri	SEC	12	7	7.6	-0.6	58%
Virginia Tech	ACC	9	5	5.7	-0.7	56%
UNLV	Mountain West	6	3	3.8	-0.8	50%
Washington	Big Ten	6	3	3.8	-0.8	50%
Arizona State Sun	Big 12	6	3	3.8	-0.8	50%
East Carolina	American	6	3	3.8	-0.8	50%
San José State	Mountain West	8	4	5.1	-1.1	50%
Arkansas	SEC	8	4	5.1	-1.1	50%
TCU Horned	Big 12	5	2	3.2	-1.2	40%
Oklahoma State	Big 12	5	2	3.2	-1.2	40%
Oklahoma	SEC	5	2	3.2	-1.2	40%
Iowa	Big Ten	5	2	3.2	-1.2	40%
Syracuse	ACC	10	5	6.3	-1.3	50%
North Carolina Tar	ACC	7	3	4.4	-1.4	43%
Liberty	CUSA	4	1	2.5	-1.5	25%
SMU	ACC	4	1	2.5	-1.5	25%
Penn State Nittany	Big Ten	4	1	2.5	-1.5	25%
Tarleton State	UAC	4	1	2.5	-1.5	25%
Wake Forest Demon	ACC	9	4	5.7	-1.7	44%
Houston	Big 12	9	4	5.7	-1.7	44%
Georgia State	Sun Belt	11	5	7.0	-2.0	45%
Sacramento State	MAC	8	3	5.1	-2.1	38%
Memphis	American	8	3	5.1	-2.1	38%
Portland State	Big Sky	5	1	3.2	-2.2	20%
Hawai'i Rainbow	Mountain West	10	4	6.3	-2.3	40%
Georgia Tech Yellow	ACC	4	0	2.5	-2.5	0%
UTEP	Mountain West	6	1	3.8	-2.8	17%

On defense the sign flips: allowing fewer touchdowns than the trips faced imply is good for the defense but is the same kind of luck, and just as likely to come back. The table reorders so the most fortunate team is at the top either way.