Fantasy Rankings

2026 rankings in all three scoring formats, ordered by value over replacement rather than raw points. Projections regress 2026 per-game scoring toward a positional baseline by games played, then apply an ageing factor measured within player (the same man a year older) because average points by age says receivers peak at 30, which is only true of the ones still good enough to start.

How it works

Rookies are projected from draft position over the 2016-2024 classes. 15, so a player's own volume is trusted, his efficiency is pulled toward the league average, and the result is scaled by what his team is projected to throw and run. 37. Season totals are that rate times the games a player is expected to play rather than a flat seventeen, which almost nobody reaches. That alone cuts the error on a season projection by nearly a third. Current injuries reduce expected games rather than per-game scoring, since that is the mechanism the backtest supported. Projections are then blended with the FantasyPros expert consensus, lightly at the top of the board where the model already agrees within about four positional spots and more heavily in the deep tiers where it is weakest and reliably the more optimistic of the two. The Model column shows what the model said on its own.

One point per reception. Switching format is not a rescaling. It reorders the board, because a possession receiver’s value is mostly catches and a runner’s is mostly yards. Consensus is the FantasyPros redraft rank at the same position, shown for comparison and never used in the projection.

#	Player	Pos	Tm	Proj	Model	Exp G	VOR	Vol/g	Team pass	Depth	Consensus
1	Bijan Robinson	RB1	ATL	242.1	245	14	+143.1	21.6	0.99×	RB1	RB2▲1
2	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR1	SEA	249.5	250	14	+134.9	9.5	1.00×	WR1	WR1
3	Jahmyr Gibbs	RB2	DET	230.2	228	12	+131.2	20.5	1.00×	RB1	RB1▼1
4	Puka Nacua	WR2	LA	228.0	228	12	+113.4	10.8	1.04×	WR1	WR2
5	Ashton Jeanty	RB3	LV	188.2	192	12	+89.2	19.7	1.03×	RB1	RB12▲9
6	Kyren Williams	RB4	LA	183.4	183	12	+84.4	19.4	1.04×	RB1	RB4
7	Christian McCaffrey	RB5	SF	181.7	-	12	+82.7	21.0	0.99×	RB1	-
8	Ja'Marr Chase	WR3	CIN	194.5	195	12	+79.9	9.6	1.00×	WR1	WR3
9	Trey McBride	TE1	ARI	188.2	188	12	+77.2	9.0	1.04×	TE1	TE1
10	Jonathan Taylor	RB6	IND	173.9	174	12	+74.9	21.7	1.01×	RB1	RB8▲2
11	Kenneth Walker III	RB7	KC	172.3	169	12	+73.3	18.2	0.98×	RB1	RB3▼4
12	Bucky Irving	RB8	TB	171.7	176	12	+72.7	19.2	0.99×	RB1	RB13▲5
13	CeeDee Lamb	WR4	DAL	185.8	186	12	+71.2	10.0	1.03×	WR1	WR4
14	Javonte Williams	RB9	DAL	168.9	168	12	+69.9	17.6	1.03×	RB1	RB7▼2
15	Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR5	DET	184.3	185	12	+69.7	9.5	1.00×	WR1	WR6▲1
16	Brock Bowers	TE2	LV	179.9	180	12	+68.9	7.9	1.03×	TE1	TE2
17	James Cook	RB10	BUF	166.4	165	12	+67.4	19.1	0.97×	RB1	RB6▼4
18	Chase Brown	RB11	CIN	164.6	172	12	+65.6	18.2	1.00×	RB1	RB15▲4
19	Chris Olave	WR6	NO	178.8	-	12	+64.2	9.2	1.03×	WR1	-
20	Josh Jacobs	RB12	GB	162.1	161	12	+63.1	18.5	1.03×	RB1	RB10▼2
21	Drake London	WR7	ATL	177.4	179	12	+62.8	8.6	0.99×	WR1	WR8▲1
22	Quinshon Judkins	RB13	CLE	158.0	172	12	+59.0	18.7	0.99×	RB1	RB22▲9
23	Derrick Henry	RB14	BAL	157.9	154	14	+58.9	20.3	0.99×	RB1	RB5▼9
24	Zay Flowers	WR8	BAL	163.0	159	12	+48.4	7.9	0.99×	WR1	WR5▼3
25	Tetairoa McMillan	WR9	CAR	161.6	167	12	+47.0	8.0	1.01×	WR1	WR14▲5
26	Josh Allen	QB1	BUF	245.8	245	12	+46.8	6.1	0.97×	QB1	QB1
27	D'Andre Swift	RB15	CHI	145.6	149	12	+46.6	19.1	1.01×	RB1	RB16▲1
28	Chuba Hubbard	RB16	CAR	143.5	139	12	+44.5	16.4	1.01×	RB1	RB9▼7
29	Garrett Wilson	WR10	NYJ	155.1	159	12	+40.5	8.1	0.99×	WR1	WR15▲5
30	Bhayshul Tuten	RB17	JAX	139.3	133	12	+40.3	14.0	0.97×	RB1	RB14▼3
31	Jaylen Warren	RB18	PIT	137.7	132	12	+38.7	16.8	1.03×	RB1	RB11▼7
32	Nico Collins	WR11	HOU	152.5	-	12	+37.9	8.1	1.02×	WR1	-
33	Justin Jefferson	WR12	MIN	151.9	147	12	+37.3	7.8	0.96×	WR1	WR7▼5
34	Tony Pollard	RB19	TEN	136.2	136	12	+37.2	17.8	0.99×	RB1	RB18▼1
35	George Pickens	WR13	DAL	150.6	151	12	+36.0	7.5	1.03×	WR2	WR13
36	Saquon Barkley	RB20	PHI	132.0	137	12	+33.0	18.7	1.01×	RB1	RB23▲3
37	Tre Tucker	WR14	LV	146.1	151	14	+31.5	6.9	1.03×	WR1	WR23▲9
38	Rhamondre Stevenson	RB21	NE	129.9	127	12	+30.9	15.8	1.00×	RB1	RB17▼4
39	Michael Wilson	WR15	ARI	143.9	146	12	+29.3	7.9	1.04×	WR1	WR18▲3
40	Joe Burrow	QB2	CIN	227.7	228	12	+28.7	2.6	1.00×	QB1	QB3▲1
41	Bo Nix	QB3	DEN	227.0	250	14	+28.0	4.4	1.00×	QB1	QB22▲19
42	Christian Watson	WR16	GB	141.5	138	12	+26.9	7.0	1.03×	WR1	WR9▼7
43	A.J. Brown	WR17	NE	140.5	142	12	+25.9	7.8	1.00×	WR1	WR20▲3
44	Parker Washington	WR18	JAX	140.2	138	12	+25.6	6.6	0.97×	WR1	WR11▼7
45	Carnell TateROOKIE	WR19	TEN	138.8	149	13	+24.2	-	-	WR1	WR28▲9
46	Ollie Gordon II	RB22	MIA	122.5	118	12	+23.5	12.5	0.95×	RB1	RB19▼3
47	Tee Higgins	WR20	CIN	137.7	135	12	+23.1	7.0	1.00×	WR2	WR12▼8
48	DK Metcalf	WR21	PIT	135.6	136	12	+21.0	7.8	1.03×	WR1	WR22▲1
49	George Kittle	TE3	SF	131.8	-	12	+20.8	6.0	0.99×	TE1	-
50	Jameson Williams	WR22	DET	134.7	134	12	+20.1	6.2	1.00×	WR2	WR25▲3

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