Fantasy Rankings

2026 rankings in all three scoring formats, ordered by value over replacement rather than raw points. Projections regress 2026 per-game scoring toward a positional baseline by games played, then apply an ageing factor measured within player (the same man a year older) because average points by age says receivers peak at 30, which is only true of the ones still good enough to start. Rookies are projected from draft position over the 2016-2024 classes. Projections are built from volume rather than from last season's points: targets per game repeat at r = 0.84 year over year while yards per target manage 0.44 and touchdowns per target 0.15, so a player's own volume is trusted, his efficiency is pulled toward the league average, and the result is scaled by what his team is projected to throw and run. Backtested on 2022-2024 against actual 2025 results, that cuts the average error from 2.60 points a game to 2.37. Season totals are that rate times the games a player is expected to play rather than a flat seventeen, which almost nobody reaches. That alone cuts the error on a season projection by nearly a third. Current injuries reduce expected games rather than per-game scoring, since that is the mechanism the backtest supported. Projections are then blended with the FantasyPros expert consensus, lightly at the top of the board where the model already agrees within about four positional spots and more heavily in the deep tiers where it is weakest and reliably the more optimistic of the two. The Model column shows what the model said on its own.