Projected Standings

Projected 2026 records. 2026 has not kicked off yet, so ratings come from 2026 net EPA per play, converted to a per-game point margin and run through the real schedule. Home field is worth two points.

How it works

These are expected wins, not simulated ones. 4 means the schedule is worth about nine and a half wins to that roster.

#	Team	Proj W	Proj L	Rating	Off EPA	Def EPA	RZ TD%
1	49ers	11.0	6.0	+7.4	0.177	-0.043	87.0%
2	Jaguars	10.7	6.3	+6.0	0.155	-0.036	63.2%
3	Chiefs	10.2	6.8	+5.4	0.118	-0.056	56.5%
4	Bengals	10.0	7.0	+4.7	0.109	-0.041	63.6%
5	Rams	9.7	7.3	+3.9	0.059	-0.057	69.0%
6	Vikings	9.4	7.6	+3.0	-0.096	-0.193	46.7%
7	Seahawks	9.4	7.6	+3.0	-0.040	-0.131	54.5%
8	Ravens	9.2	7.8	+2.3	0.081	0.011	62.5%
9	Bills	9.1	7.9	+2.3	0.204	0.128	66.7%
10	Giants	8.9	8.1	0.0	0.013	0.011	63.6%
11	Panthers	8.9	8.1	+1.2	0.063	0.024	68.2%
12	Bears	8.9	8.1	+1.6	0.047	-0.002	50.0%
13	Packers	8.9	8.1	+1.7	-0.003	-0.057	48.0%
14	Jets	8.8	8.2	+0.4	0.013	-0.002	44.4%
15	Texans	8.7	8.3	-0.2	0.027	0.031	57.7%
16	Patriots	8.7	8.3	+1.2	0.057	0.019	50.0%
17	Buccaneers	8.7	8.3	+0.8	-0.084	-0.111	54.5%
18	Lions	8.6	8.4	+0.1	0.140	0.134	70.4%
19	Cowboys	8.5	8.5	-0.9	0.114	0.138	71.4%
20	Steelers	8.4	8.6	-0.2	-0.048	-0.044	45.0%
21	Broncos	8.4	8.6	+0.2	-0.041	-0.049	63.2%
22	Browns	8.2	8.8	-0.5	-0.050	-0.037	56.2%
23	Raiders	7.9	9.1	-2.2	-0.008	0.054	45.2%
24	Falcons	7.9	9.1	-0.9	-0.042	-0.018	66.7%
25	Commanders	7.8	9.2	-2.6	-0.014	0.067	50.0%
26	Colts	7.3	9.7	-4.0	-0.068	0.048	60.0%
27	Saints	7.2	9.8	-3.9	-0.036	0.075	70.8%
28	Cardinals	7.0	10.0	-4.4	-0.034	0.095	44.4%
29	Titans	6.5	10.5	-6.6	-0.135	0.057	47.4%
30	Dolphins	6.4	10.6	-5.6	-0.042	0.133	60.0%
31	Chargers	6.3	10.7	-6.0	-0.225	-0.036	53.3%
32	Eagles	6.2	10.8	-7.8	-0.116	0.112	68.4%