Red Zone Regression
Red zone usage repeats from one season to the next at r = 0.84. Red zone touchdown RATE repeats at r = 0.15. The gap between the two is therefore mostly luck, and mostly comes back, which makes the difference between how often a player was handed the ball inside the 20 and how often he actually scored one of the few genuinely predictive things in fantasy football. League average is 25.0 touchdowns per 100 red zone touches, 2026.
Due to score more
Heavy red zone usage, few touchdowns. Buy.
| Player | Tm | Touches | TD | Exp | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler AllgeierRB |  ARI | 4 | 0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR |  SEA | 3 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8 |
| Matthew GoldenWR |  GB | 3 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8 |
| Travis EtienneRB |  NO | 3 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8 |
| Joe BurrowQB |  CIN | 3 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8 |
| Justin HerbertQB |  LAC | 3 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8 |
| De'Von AchaneRB |  MIA | 3 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8 |
| James CookRB |  BUF | 3 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8 |
| Khalil ShakirWR | BUF | 3 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8 |
| Kaytron AllenRB |  WAS | 3 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8 |
| Chase BrownRB | CIN | 6 | 1 | 1.5 | -0.5 |
| Jayden DanielsQB | WAS | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | -0.5 |
| Deshaun WatsonQB |  CLE | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | -0.5 |
| Christian McCaffreyRB |  SF | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | -0.5 |
| Demarcus RobinsonWR | SF | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | -0.5 |
| Jaylen WarrenRB |  PIT | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | -0.5 |
| Sam LaPortaTE |  DET | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | -0.5 |
| Saquon BarkleyRB |  PHI | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | -0.5 |
| Quinshon JudkinsRB | CLE | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | -0.5 |
| Cade OttonTE |  TB | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | -0.5 |
| Rachaad WhiteRB | WAS | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | -0.5 |
| MarShawn LloydRB | GB | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | -0.5 |
| Ronnie RiversRB |  LA | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | -0.5 |
| John BatesTE | WAS | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | -0.5 |
| George HolaniRB | SEA | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | -0.5 |
| Ja'Kobi LaneWR |  BAL | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | -0.5 |
| Mitchell EvansTE |  CAR | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | -0.5 |
| Keaton MitchellRB | LAC | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | -0.5 |
| Kenneth Walker IIIRB |  KC | 4 | 1 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| Jahmyr GibbsRB | DET | 8 | 2 | 2.0 | 0.0 |
Due to score less
Scored far above their usage. Sell.
| Player | Tm | Touches | TD | Exp | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David MontgomeryRB |  HOU | 6 | 3 | 1.5 | +1.5 |
| Amon-Ra St. BrownWR | DET | 4 | 2 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| Isaiah LikelyTE |  NYG | 4 | 2 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| Chuba HubbardRB | CAR | 4 | 2 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| Jonathan TaylorRB |  IND | 5 | 2 | 1.2 | +0.8 |
| Javonte WilliamsRB |  DAL | 5 | 2 | 1.2 | +0.8 |
| Derrick HenryRB | BAL | 6 | 2 | 1.5 | +0.5 |
| D'Andre SwiftRB |  CHI | 6 | 2 | 1.5 | +0.5 |
| Bryce YoungQB | CAR | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | +0.5 |
| Dallas GoedertTE | PHI | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | +0.5 |
| Patrick MahomesQB | KC | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | +0.5 |
| Nico CollinsWR | HOU | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | +0.5 |
| Bucky IrvingRB | TB | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | +0.5 |
| Ladd McConkeyWR | LAC | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | +0.5 |
| Mike GesickiTE | CIN | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | +0.5 |
| Mike EvansWR | SF | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | +0.5 |
| Antonio WilliamsWR | WAS | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | +0.5 |
| Pat FreiermuthTE | PIT | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | +0.5 |
| CeeDee LambWR | DAL | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | +0.5 |
| T.J. HockensonTE |  MIN | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | +0.5 |
| Jack BechWR |  LV | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | +0.5 |
| Kendre MillerRB | NO | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | +0.5 |
| Omarion HamptonRB | LAC | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | +0.5 |
| Elic AyomanorWR |  TEN | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | +0.5 |
| Caleb WilliamsQB | CHI | 3 | 1 | 0.8 | +0.2 |
| Ashton JeantyRB | LV | 7 | 2 | 1.8 | +0.2 |
| Justin JeffersonWR | MIN | 3 | 1 | 0.8 | +0.2 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr.WR | SF | 3 | 1 | 0.8 | +0.2 |
| Juwan JohnsonTE | NO | 3 | 1 | 0.8 | +0.2 |
| Devin SingletaryRB | NYG | 3 | 1 | 0.8 | +0.2 |
A caution worth stating: this measures opportunity against outcome, not talent. A player can score below his usage because he is genuinely poor near the goal line, and a tight end can beat it three years running. The gap regresses on average, which is a statement about the population and not a promise about any one player.