Red Zone Regression

84. 15. The gap between the two is therefore mostly luck, and mostly comes back, which makes the difference between how often a player was handed the ball inside the 20 and how often he actually scored one of the few genuinely predictive things in fantasy football.

How it works

8 touchdowns per 100 red zone touches, 2026.

Due to score more

Heavy red zone usage, few touchdowns. Buy.

Player	Tm	Touches	TD	Exp	Diff
Tyler AllgeierRB	ARI	15	0	3.0	-3.0
Jaylen WarrenRB	PIT	12	0	2.4	-2.4
Kaelon BlackRB	SF	12	0	2.4	-2.4
Ashton JeantyRB	LV	32	4	6.3	-2.3
Chase BrownRB	CIN	16	1	3.2	-2.2
Bijan RobinsonRB	ATL	26	3	5.1	-2.1
Tony PollardRB	TEN	26	3	5.1	-2.1
Braelon AllenRB	NYJ	14	1	2.8	-1.8
Kenneth Walker IIIRB	KC	34	5	6.7	-1.7
Michael WilsonWR	ARI	13	1	2.6	-1.6
Emanuel WilsonRB	SEA	18	2	3.6	-1.6
Mike Washington Jr.RB	LV	8	0	1.6	-1.6
Bam KnightRB	ARI	8	0	1.6	-1.6
Corey KinerRB	NE	8	0	1.6	-1.6
Luther Burden IIIWR	CHI	12	1	2.4	-1.4
Kendrick BourneWR	ARI	7	0	1.4	-1.4
Travis EtienneRB	NO	7	0	1.4	-1.4
De'Von AchaneRB	MIA	7	0	1.4	-1.4
Tyler GoodsonRB	DAL	7	0	1.4	-1.4
Jayden DanielsQB	WAS	6	0	1.2	-1.2
Denzel BostonWR	CLE	6	0	1.2	-1.2
Justin HerbertQB	LAC	6	0	1.2	-1.2
Josh DownsWR	IND	6	0	1.2	-1.2
George HolaniRB	SEA	11	1	2.2	-1.2
Rico DowdleRB	PIT	6	0	1.2	-1.2
Pierre StrongRB	GB	6	0	1.2	-1.2
Chris BrooksRB	GB	6	0	1.2	-1.2
Drake LondonWR	ATL	5	0	1.0	-1.0
Dalton SchultzTE	HOU	5	0	1.0	-1.0
KC ConcepcionWR	CLE	5	0	1.0	-1.0

Due to score less

Scored far above their usage. Sell.

Player	Tm	Touches	TD	Exp	Diff
Josh AllenQB	BUF	13	7	2.6	+4.4
Stefon DiggsWR	WAS	5	4	1.0	+3.0
Pat FreiermuthTE	PIT	5	4	1.0	+3.0
Mike GesickiTE	CIN	5	4	1.0	+3.0
Christian McCaffreyRB	SF	26	8	5.1	+2.9
Kyle PittsTE	ATL	6	4	1.2	+2.8
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR	SEA	12	5	2.4	+2.6
Chuba HubbardRB	CAR	18	6	3.6	+2.4
Javonte WilliamsRB	DAL	34	9	6.7	+2.3
Isaiah LikelyTE	NYG	10	4	2.0	+2.0
Malik WillisQB	MIA	5	3	1.0	+2.0
Jake FergusonTE	DAL	5	3	1.0	+2.0
Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB	NYG	5	3	1.0	+2.0
CeeDee LambWR	DAL	16	5	3.2	+1.8
George KittleTE	SF	11	4	2.2	+1.8
Christian WatsonWR	GB	7	3	1.4	+1.6
Davante AdamsWR	LA	7	3	1.4	+1.6
Devaughn VeleWR	NO	7	3	1.4	+1.6
Jameson WilliamsWR	DET	7	3	1.4	+1.6
Cody WhiteWR	LV	7	3	1.4	+1.6
Ja'Marr ChaseWR	CIN	8	3	1.6	+1.4
Brock BowersTE	LV	8	3	1.6	+1.4
Juwan JohnsonTE	NO	8	3	1.6	+1.4
James CookRB	BUF	24	6	4.7	+1.3
Kyren WilliamsRB	LA	25	6	4.9	+1.1
Drake MayeQB	NE	5	2	1.0	+1.0
Puka NacuaWR	LA	10	3	2.0	+1.0
Hunter HenryTE	NE	5	2	1.0	+1.0
Keon ColemanWR	BUF	5	2	1.0	+1.0
Romeo DoubsWR	NE	5	2	1.0	+1.0

A caution worth stating: this measures opportunity against outcome, not talent. A player can score below his usage because he is genuinely poor near the goal line, and a tight end can beat it three years running. The gap regresses on average, which is a statement about the population and not a promise about any one player.